Environmental activism seems to know no bounds. It seems the Bank of Greece has other priorities than to see how the Greek economy can avoid default on its obligations. It is begging for bailout loans (this is an insolvent country) from the EU and IMF - just about every economy in the world. Instead the Bank of Greece Governor George Provopoulos is displaying the same reckless decision making as to the cause of global warming that parallels the recklesss attitude of the worlds bankers and politicians texercised up to and during the financial crisis. These people are not focusd on their jobs or the people they should be serving, It seems each country has their Bernanke, Geithner and Barney Frank. BRUSSELS/ATHENS | Mon May 30, 2011 1:15pm EDT Greece took a 110 billion euro ($158 billion) rescue package from the EU and IMF last May but has since fallen short of its deficit-reduction goals, raising the risk of default on its 327 billion euro debt -- 150 percent of its economic output. (Owed to other EU banks - jonathan Dogood) EU officials said a new 65 billion euro package could involve a mixture of collateralised loans from the EU and IMF, and additional revenue measures, with unprecedented intrusive external supervision of Greece's privatization programme. "It would require collateral for new loans and EU technical assistance -- EU involvement in the privatization process," one senior EU official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. We hope George Provopouos can return his focus on the economic survival of Greece, its people and Europe's stability and put off the supposed problems of 2050 until another day.
GREECE IS TEETERING ON DEFAULT - DRAGGING DOWN IRELAND, PORTUGAL, ITALY AND SPAIN AND THREATENING THE EUROPEAN UNION.
REUTERS

Athens News - Bank of Greece Governor on Climate Change \Action -
1 Jun 2011
story by Christos Zerefos
In spite of Greece's current economic difficulties, action on climate change will prove beneficial for its economy in the long-term, Bank of Greece governor George Provopoulos stressed on Wednesday. He was speaking at an event to present the central bank's report on "The environmental, economic and social repercussions of climate change on Greece" held at the Athens concert hall.
"The adoption of policies to mitigate the repercussions of climate change on Greece and policies for adapting to these changes, while appearing to be obstructed by today's acute economic problem, can truly contribute to its solution," he stressed.
According to the report prepared by a team set up by Provopoulos in 2009, a programme to drastically reduce greenhouse gases will greatly reduce the negative impact of climate change on the Greek economy by the end of the century.
Specifically, he said a programme with an estimated cost of 113 billion euro up to 2050 and 142 billion euro up to 2100 would restrict the cost of climate change to 294 billion euro by the end of the century. If no action were taken, by contrast, the estimated cost of climate change would be 60 percent higher at nearly 701 billion euro. In addition, no action to reduce human-generated greenhouse gases would lead to a two percent reduction of GDP by 2050 and a six percent reduction of GDP by 2100.
Provopoulos said the report presented on Wednesday was just the "first step" in an ongoing effort by the central bank that would be extended into more areas.
Environment, Energy and Climate Change Minister Tina Birbili said the report would act as a reference point in European dialogue on climate change issues, noting that the discussion in Europe had never been linked with a transition to another model for growth based on a green economy.
The minister stressed the usefulness of the report, both in terms of its road map for energy until 2050 and other targets. This envisaged that almost 100 percent of electricity production will be covered by renewable energy sources by 2050, whose total power output would be increased to 40 gigaWatts from 15 gigaWatts in 2020.
It also called for a 60 percent reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by the middle of the century and use of energy conservation measures to keep energy consumption at current levels.
Among others, it envisaged a switch to fixed-track means of transport for the bulk of transport needs and an energy-efficiency upgrade for buildings throughout the country. It also called for increased use of biomass and improvement of networks, energy storage facilities, dams and use electrically-powered cars.
Presenting the report, the committee coordinator Christos Zerefos warned that the predicted repercussions on the national economy examined were "negative and in some cases, extremely negative". Among others, he indicated a forecast for an additional 20 days of drought in the eastern mainland and Crete and up to 40 additional days of drought in 2071-2100.
This included an increase in the days with high fire risk by 40 days in 2071-2100 for eastern Greece, leading to severe repercussions for tourism due to changes in arrival dates. (ANA)
Among a plethora of indicators provided here, we suggest you consider that: The current inventory of foreclosures is 800% greater than normal; bank sales of foreclosed homes have increased 900%; and sellers are now ten times more likely to take a loss.
Do we see an end near? Not when delinquent mortgages are a massive 14 times greater than average monthly sales. Such distress fits perfectly with our analysis of the long-series of Case Shiller. It predicts a fall of 17% from today to reach trend.
In short, our charts offer overwhelming evidence that prices will fall for as far as the eye can see. And not by a little. Check the data and comments below. Be forewarned. You may find logic in panic.
(*Note: we have presented 10 of the charts here - go to Seeking Alpha site for the full article.)










Our politcal leaders to a man are either the most ill-informed, unknowledgeable, corrupted by a failed politcal system or they are so fearful of telling the public the truth about the severe economic consequences of the last 40 years of profligate spending. As a consequence of any of these suppositions, the future of the U.S.A. is bleak. We intend to present a series of articles and ecomonic facts which will inform each reader and necessarily be the cause of concern for the future in every (rational, responsible) reader's mind. Syntagma Protests Continue The "Indignant" netizens of Athens turned up outside Parliament to protest for a fourth consecutive day on Saturday, once again converging on Syntagma Square from all directions for the 6:00 p.m. kickoff. A mismatched crowd of all ages and from all walks of life, from school children to old-age pensioners, began to arrive on foot or on bicycles, anxious to once again demonstrate against the austerity measures announced by the government. The movement shows no signs of abating, with 13,000 turning up for Friday's protest in spite of heavy rain falling on Greece's capital, and similar protests taking place in other major Greek cities. Some have camped out in tents at the square and the internet invitation has been renewed for Sunday, when similar protests are planned in all European capitals. http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/9/42282 PROTESTS IN GREECE NO ONE REPORTS -SYNYAGMA 24 May 2011 The civil servants' union federation ADEDY on Tuesday announced a protest rally against the new measures announced by the government at Klathmonos Square in central Athens, at 11am on Saturday, June 4. "The new tide of cuts, tax hikes, privatisations, dismissals and restriction of insurance rights reduces the living standards of all by 20 percent and leads the economy and the country into new dead ends," an announcement by ADEDY's executive committee said. The union federation noted that public-sector staff face an "unbearable and desperate situation" with further wage cuts, reduction of their lump sum on retirement, an increase in their working week to 40 hours and imminent cuts in supplementary pensions, putting particular pressure on the thousands of households that depended on a public-sector wage or pensions and had one or more unemployed members. 26 May 2011 The process of listing and evaluating all the real estate property owned by the public sector is expected to start yielding results in June, Finance Minister Yiorgos Papakonstantinou said in Parliament on Thursday in response to questions. The minister said that proposals for exploiting this property will begin to unfold and be implemented taking into account the conditions prevailing in international markets at the time. He said the government had begun to compile a complete record and evaluation of every feature in its portfolio of exploitable real estate, with the assistance of financial and specialised advisors. The process for exploiting these would be further facilitated by present but also future legislation that the government intends to pass, such as creating a general secretariat for public property at the finance ministry, the introduction of the concept of 'surface' that legally differentiates between land and the overlying buildings and other measures. (ANA). 24 May 2011 by Dimitris Yannopoulos A BARRAGE of criticism over Greek delays in promoting public sector cutbacks and privatisations overshadowed a Eurogroup meeting in Brussels on May 17 in which Athens was hoping to clinch a eurozone pledge to ease the country’s debt burden. But the 16 eurozone finance ministers appeared to disagree even on the merits of extending the debt repayment for Greek bonds, preferring instead to warn their Greek counterpart, Yiorgos Papakonstantinou, with a freeze on financial aid if he doesn’t fully comply with the harsh austerity terms of the 110bn euro EU-IMF rescue package and push harder for domestic consensus with opposition parties on the measures. “Before Greece does its homework, no money can flow,” Austrian Finance Minister Maria Fekter told reporters after the stormy eurozone session. “You can’t make promises and then not get privatisations on their way. Greece is still remaining in the state we had in the Seventies. It doesn’t work that way. If you’ve cheated your way into the euro, then you have to catch up on your homework now. That’s the homework necessary so that one can stay in a stable euro- zone,” Fekter warned. Reprofiling* Eurogroup President and Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker mentioned for the first time the mild restructuring option of “reprofiling” for the whole of Greece’s 340bn euro debt as a means of ironing out the country’s debt servicing obligations over a longer repayment period, by inviting investors to agree on extending the maturities of the debt they hold. “I have to repeat that a large restructuring is no option. Nobody was mentioning tonight the need of having a large restructuring,” Juncker told a Eurogroup press conference at the end of the meeting. “I wouldn’t exclude in a definite way a kind of reprofiling,” he added. “It’s not reprofiling or nothing, it’s measures and measures and measures and then maybe reprofiling.” But even the mild idea of reprofiling was strongly opposed by Austria, Holland and France, who used it only as a bargaining chip to force Greece into stricter compliance with the EU-IMF bailout terms. The widening rift between eurozone moderates and hardliners was apparently due to fierce reactions to any measure of debt relief by the European Central Bank, which seeks to get back from Athens some 50bn euros it has spent since last May to purchase Greek bonds from EU banks.
* Look up Meredith Whitney's warning about default of state, county and local debt. This soulds a lot like what is going on in Greece. It's not default it is "reprofiling".
What is happening in Greece is the result of having a national debt that is 115% of annual GDP. Italy is at 118% of GDP.
U.S. national debt (Federal, State, County and local) is at 85%+ of annual GDP and will rise to 100% in the next 2 years unless severe cutbacks on all expenditures and the elimination of most corporate tax incentives. Addtioinally to staunch the outflow of U.S. dollars we need to institiute a program of U.S. oil and gas development endorsed as a national security priority. We can be energy independent in 8 years if Obama would address a joint session of congress and to paraphrase JFK with the manned mission to the moon tell the American people - "We will be energy independent before the end of the decade."
Americans have mortgages on their homes, cars and educations, We must deal from a disadvantaged position with banks regulated by our own government. Based on the actions of the last 2-1/2 years, the American people have not faired so well. Millions of homes are in some phase of foreclosure, tens of thousands of cars have been repossessed, and many thousands of college graduates are struggling under their college debt.
What is your prognosis of our future with over $2,405 Billions of U.S. debt (a mortgage on our children's and now grandchildren's futures) in the hands of China ($1.145Trillion), Oil Exporters (Arab States, Venezuela, etc - $225Billions), Russia ($128Billions and Japan (a country in deflation for 20 years - their national home values have gone down 70% - $907Billions)?
When the bill collector comes calling........
More to follow!

The protests were organised via Facebook, without the involvement of political parties or trade unions, and were inspired by Spain's 'Los Indignados' movement. (ANA)
Papakonstantinou on plans to exploit public real estate
Acropolis, Parthenon, Elgin Marbles anyone?

Fiscal delays draw EU warning
Consensus push
To bypass domestic opposition to controversial privatisations, eurozone ministers urged Papakonstantinou to commission a private agency to oversee the sale of state assets.
Layoffs by state exam?
UNDER mounting EU pressure for more drastic public sector cutbacks, the government hinted on May 16 that over 100,000 employees in state-run companies could be fired if they don’t meet strict criteria for their transfer to the civil service.
Interior Minister Yiannis Ragousis suggested on May 16 that some 130,000 employees in public utilities (Deko), agencies and corporations would be selected for transfer to governmental departments of the state administration. He noted that the Supreme Council for Personnel Selection (Asep), which administers the civil service entrance exams, would evaluate the candidates for transfer.
If, however, those selected for transfer were deemed by Asep as “unfit or unable to meet the criteria for filling specific public sector vacancies”, the candidates would be permanently laid off, Ragousis said.
To allay fears of public sector employees over mass layoffs, government spokesman Yiorgos Petalotis said that 53,000 civil servants in governmental departments and another 650,000 permanent employees in state organisations are excluded from any form of mandatory transfer supervised by Asep.
Regarding further cuts in civil servants’ salaries, Ragousis noted that “underpaid public employees’ salaries will be raised rather than reduced”.
It seems almost surreal that our media and politicians are continually raising the issues of human rights violations in China. Let’s see – worker exploitation – low wages, long hours and poor working conditions; environmental exploitation and forced population relocation to build cities, dams, power projects (including nuke plants) and highways; domination of Tibet and Mongolia; and price pegging the Yuan against the world currencies…..................................
Friday, May 27, 2011 - The China Post - 3 blasts strike China government Buildings, 2 killed. The photo takend shows heavy smoke after an explosion occurred at the Linjiang District government office in Fuzhou City, east China;s Jiangxi province. Three (3) explosions including two (2) car blasts struck government buildings in eastern China's Jiangxi province, an official said, with state media reporting two people were killed and six others injured. (AFP)
BEIJING (Reuters) - Coordinated explosions at three sites near government buildings in eastern China killed two people Thursday and were set off by a man apparently angry about the illegal demolition of his home, state media reported.
30 May 2011 Last updated at 07:34 ET
China's Inner Mongolia 'under heavy security'
Rights groups said 2,000 students protested in Xilinhot last week
Related Stories

Chinese authorities have tightened security across the province of Inner Mongolia after days of unrest, rights groups and residents say. Hundreds of riot police armed with batons have been posted at the main square in provincial capital Hohhot. The unrest erupted last week after two ethnic Mongolians were killed in separate incidents. The demonstrations are thought to be the region's largest in 20 years, involving hundreds of ethnic Mongolians. Ethnic Mongolians were infuriated by the death of a farmer on 10 May. He was trying to protect his land when he was run down and killed, apparently by an ethnically Han Chinese driver.
Five days later, another ethnic Mongolian was killed during a protest at a mine.
Analysts say the deaths have tapped into deeper concerns among ethnic Mongolians that their traditional nomadic way of life is being overridden by mining projects.
The government confirmed last week that two Han Chinese had been arrested for murder, but gave no further details of the cases.
On Friday, provincial Communist Party chief Hu Chunhua met students and teachers and promised that anyone found to have committed a crime would be brought to justice, according to the state-run Inner Mongolian Daily.
Less than 20% of Inner Mongolia's estimated 25 million residents are ethnic Mongolians. About 80% are Han Chinese.
Internet Access Disrupted
Access to the internet has been blocked in some areas, and universities and schools are under close watch.
The New York-based Southern Mongolian Human Rights Information Centre said more demonstrations had been planned for Monday.
The centre described the situation in many parts of Inner Mongolia as martial law.
Residents of the city of Chifeng told the Associated Press that police were out in force, and the internet had been cut off.
"There's no point in going to the internet cafes since they have suspended business because the internet is down there too," said a waitress at a Chifeng restaurant.
A university worker in Hohhot told Reuters that three entrances to the institution had been sealed off by police.
The BBC's Michael Bristow in Beijing says references to the demonstrations are being wiped from the internet.
But he says the authorities are also trying to ease the anger of the ethnic Mongolians by sending senior Communist Party officials to the city of Xilinhot, where the trouble started. Wikipedia - The terms myopia and myopic (or the common terms short sightedness or short sighted) have also been used metaphorically to refer to cognitive thinking and decision making that is narrow sighted or lacking in concern for wider interests or longer-term consequences.
That didn't take long! May 26, 2011
Dishonorable discharge. Walt Disney Co. said it will withdraw an application to trademark the term "SEAL Team 6," the name of the military unit that took out Osama bin Laden. Less than a week after the Navy SEAL team's successful mission, Disney moved to patent the name in the hopes of exploiting it for toys and entertainment, making the company the butt of jokes for its greed and annoying the Navy. After the Navy filed its own trademark claim, Disney bailed out. I just want to know why someone in media relations didn't say at the time that maybe, just maybe, this wasn't such a good idea. From the Wall Street Journal.
Company Town The business behind the shoW - L.A. Times
Social Media's Sticky Role In Anti-Israel Uprisings | Fast CompanyAfter a page calling for a mass march by Palestinians on the borders of Israel on May 15 was taken offline by Facebook, mirror sites with more than 3.5 million followers sprung up. Now Egyptians are preparing to march on Gaza and the Israeli military is threatening to crush protests. Will the so-called “Facebook Intifada” tip the Middle East into further turmoil?Anti-Israel demonstrations and riots have broken out across the Middle East, leading up to the May 14 anniversary of the creation of Israel. Massive demonstrations calling for the annulment of Egypt and Jordan’s peace treaties with Israel took place in Amman and Cairo, while riots have already struck Jerusalem, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip at press time. A Facebook page calling for a third Palestinian intifada, or revolt against Israel, to take place on May 15, has gone viral. Several Palestinian politicians already granted tentative support to the idea of a new intifada. Will the next great Middle Eastern revolt, yet again, be driven by social media?This past March, an Arabic-language Facebook page titled “Third Palestinian Intifada” began amassing hundreds of thousands of followers. The page called for a mass march by Palestinian refugees from the 1948 and 1967 wars and their descendants on the borders of Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank on May 15, with unspecified actions to take place afterwards. May 15 is Nakba Day, an annual day of commemoration for Palestinians who lost their homes in the ethnic warfare that followed the British withdrawal from Palestine. While the page’s (anonymous) moderators initially deleted posts urging violence and bloodshed, the flood of posting to the page’s wall eventually began to include a large number of messages and videos urging for the killing of both Israelis and Jews in general.The march appears to be beginning to take place at press time—Egyptian authorities have started stockpiling emergency supplies in Sinai in preparation for a “Million Man March” that is expected to take place on May 15 from Cairo on the Egypt-Gaza.On March 29, when the “Third Palestinian Intifada” page reached 340,000 followers, Facebook took the page offline following calls from the Anti-Defamation League (ADL) and a letter to Mark Zuckerberg from Israeli Public Diplomacy and Diaspora Affairs Minister Yuli Edelstein. In the letter, Edelstein claimed “there are posted many remarks and movie clips which call for the killing of Israelis and Jews and the ‘liberating’ of Jerusalem and of Palestine through acts of violence.” Fast Company also reported on a $1 billion lawsuit filed against Zuckerberg by Larry Klayman, a Jewish-American lawyer who argued that his life was put at risk by Facebook not taking down the page quickly enough.According to Abraham Foxman, National Director of the ADL, his organization “called on Facebook to remove the page calling for a Third Intifada out of a very real concern that this was a call to violent action against Israel and Jews. The Third Intifada Facebook page on Facebook explicitly called for followers to build on the previous Intifada. The Second Palestinian Intifada, from 2000 through 2008, was responsible for thousands of casualties and deaths through a campaign of terrorism against Israel that included suicide bombings of restaurants, buses, dance clubs and cafes.”However, pro-Palestinian activists quickly began putting mirrors of the page online on Facebook and elsewhere. The largest of these is the pan-Muslim Rassoul Allah page on Facebook, which has a staggering 3.5 million followers. The latest Arabic-language poll posted to the site as of press time asks participants if they are “ready for martyrdom for the liberation of Palestine and the al-Aqsa Mosque.” Another prominent mirrior, 3rdintifada.com, also started social media presences on Twitter and YouTube.As much as pundits such as Malcolm Gladwell argue that social media does not spur revolutionary movements in the Middle East or elsewhere, facts on the ground indicate otherwise. Journalist David Wolman wrote extensively for The Atavist on how social media spurred the Egyptian revolution and the widespread use of Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube across the Middle East has been extensively documented. Social media allows the individual revolutionary to efficiently smuggle out essential information, gain safety in numbers, to propagandize their cause, and gain access to a worldwide circle of sympathy—this is something that television and landline telephones simply cannot do. For activists, social media has been the most important technological innovation since the printing press for disseminating ideas.But while the page was taken down, it acquired a new life both on- and offline. High-ranking officials in Fatah, the ruling faction of the West Bank, have implied some level of support for the “Facebook Intifada.”In an interview with Israeli Army Radio, Fatah Central Committee member Ahmad Zaki claimed that the Palestinian Authority “could not silence the Palestinian street after it saw the achievements of other people” when asked directly if a new intifada could begin on May 15. Abu Ammar, Fatah’s head in the Gaza Strip, also told Palestinian newspaper al-Hayat al-Jadida that unspecified “joint central activities” were being planned between Hamas and Fatah that included “all national and Islamic forces.” However, other prominent Fatah officials have gone on record as being opposed to the May 15 plans.Meanwhile, Hamas has stayed suspiciously mum on the issue of the “Facebook Intifada” even through a mass march on Gaza from Egypt appears to be under way. However, Hamas’ Iranian financial backers have enthusiastically supported the idea of resuming hostilities against Israel on May 15. Iranian-funded television news network Press TV has formally announced May 15 as the beginning of a new intifada and Iranian Intelligence Minister Heidar Moslehi has previously announced his country’s plans to support a social media-generated intifada against Israel as far back as 2010. Moslehi was one of the key figures in the brutal persecution of Iranian demonstrators following the contested 2009 election.But despite Iranian enthusiasm for the plan, all the evidence points to talk of a Third Intifada on social media being a genuinely grassroots project not controlled by either Fatah, Hamas, or foreign backers.The participants in eager conversations on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube tend to be young diaspora Palestinians and fellow Arabs or Muslims who have adopted the Palestinian cause as their own. Large numbers of Egyptians, moved by the suffering of civilians in Gaza and enmity toward their Israeli arch enemies, are gearing up to march on the border. However, journalists currently working on the ground in the West Bank and Gaza argue that residents there are skeptical of a new intifada.All said though, the Middle East is one of the most war- and strife-blessed regions this side of the Balkans. The tinderbox of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict could catch fire at any time; gossip of a third intifada this weekend and an Israeli decision to crush any potential upcoming protests just add to the danger.If the massive changes in Egypt, Tunisia, Bahrain, Syria, Libya, and elsewhere have taught us anything this year, it is that the conventional wisdom cannot predict a single thing.fastcompany.com • ◆The Hidden WarThe stories you missed in 2010: AfPak edition.DECEMBER 21, 2010Behind the Chaos, Obama's Plan Is Finally Coming Into FocusBy Steve CollTo many Americans, the Afghan war understandably looked like a mess in 2010. The year began amid uncertainty at home and abroad about whether Barack Obama's administration was coming or going: Troops went in, but a date of July 2011 was set in advance for the soldiers to start heading home. The U.S. commanding general was fired in June for remarks he made to Rolling Stone; reports of picaresque Afghan corruption spread, encouraged in part by the U.S. government, which intensified its scrutiny of the conduct of Afghan President Hamid Karzai's kleptocratic allies; and American battlefield casualties rose. Pakistan teetered after historic floods in July, and its army continued to tolerate and even aid Islamist militias operating from its soil, despite Pakistan's receipt of billions of dollars in U.S. aid. To cap it off, Bob Woodward published a book chronicling scratchy disagreements among some of Obama's war advisors.But the narrative unfolding beneath the headlines had more coherence than its surface suggested. During 2010, though it has received little credit for the effort, the Obama administration gradually clarified and firmed up its strategy in the Afghanistan war. There are three overlapping lines: direct pressure on al Qaeda, mainly by drone strikes; efforts to increase the capacity of the Afghan state, or at least its security state, by at last investing heavily in training its army and police; and efforts to influence Pakistan to stop tolerating and aiding Islamist militias on its soil. Timelines have also been reset and clarified. The NATO meeting in Lisbon pushed the most meaningful date of "transition" -- the time at which U.S.-led international combat forces will pass the lead role to Afghan forces -- to 2014, far enough away to be innately conditional. Next year, the administration intends to open negotiations with the Afghan government to define U.S. commitments to the country's security beyond 2014.After the confusion over the original July 2011 drawdown date, Obama's team is self-consciously signaling to Afghans, Pakistanis, and the Taliban themselves that it is U.S. policy to ensure that the Taliban will never return to power. American public opinion has turned sharply against the war, but there appears nonetheless to be ample political space in the United States to attempt the strategy Obama has now endorsed, on the timelines he has described.There are as many risks and uncertainties embedded in the administration's strategy as there are stars in the night sky. But whatever its chance of success, a coherent plan is a lot better than an incoherent one. Obama's plan accounts at least conceptually for many of the major factors in the war -- al Qaeda's resilience as a threat to the United States, nuclear-armed Pakistan's ambivalence about dangerous Islamist groups, and Afghanistan's weaknesses.What remains is to identify an equally clarified political strategy to complement the military and NATO transitions the president defined in 2010. This past year was characterized by the floating of big ideas about Afghan peace talks -- ideas that were then undermined by division and false starts. Fake Taliban negotiators humiliated their interlocutors; Pakistan's intelligence service ambiguously asserted its self-assigned role of liaison to the Taliban; and tentative efforts by Karzai's government to explore talks and enlist Saudi Arabia as a mediator stalled. In Washington, there appears to be no consensus about what an Afghan political strategy would look like and what risks should be shouldered to pursue one. The sound idea of constructing intra-Afghan unity negotiations supported by regional diplomacy has been undermined by the year's failures and the persistent, unhelpful conflation of political strategy with an unrealistic fantasy that Mullah Omar and the Quetta Shura could or would deliver a quick and easy path to peaceful national reconciliation.The Soviet Union's transition out of combat in Afghanistan succeeded (until the Soviet Union itself fell apart) in part because the Geneva Accords yielded a framework for international support for the Soviet transition, tied to U.N.-sanctioned negotiations with warring Afghan factions. Mikhail Gorbachev seized on those regional negotiations to shore up the legitimacy of his Afghan proxies and lure as many allies to his Kabul stability project as possible. Those talks, leading into 1992, ultimately failed not only because the Soviet Union collapsed, but also because the United States did not take the process and all its regional complexity seriously. The first Bush administration was understandably distracted by the Cold War's end. It preferred in any event to concentrate on its partners in Pakistan, to the exclusion of other political strategies.The Obama administration has a chance in 2011 to avoid repeating this historical error as it starts its own transition out of combat in Afghanistan. The administration needs a clearer political and regional negotiating strategy, aimed at reinforcing Afghan national unity and the isolation of violent Taliban.Steve Coll is president of the New America Foundation and the author of Ghost Wars: The Secret History of the CIA, Afghanistan, and bin Laden, from the Soviet Invasion to September 10, 2001.Drones in Libya: The global expansion of remote-controlled warfare. - By William Saletan - Slate MagazineSecretary of Defense Robert GatesOn Thursday, Defense Secretary Robert Gates announced the next stage of the most important military invasion of the 21st century. It isn’t the invasion of Iraq, Afghanistan, or Libya. It’s the invasion of warfare by unmanned vehicles.The invasion began quietly years ago, with scattered, occasional reports of drone strikes in Pakistan. As these reports accumulated, it gradually became apparent that the U.S., without putting troops on the ground or sending pilots into Pakistani air space, was using drones to wage the world’s first remote-controlled war. That was the invasion’s first stage.The drone campaign began as President Bush’s war. Then, with President Obama’s election, it crossed the political aisle. The rate of drone strikes tripled, and Bush’s war became Obama’s. (On Friday, a U.S. drone killed another 23 people in Pakistan.) That was the second stage.Drones were deployed to Afghanistan and Iraq, but only as adjuncts to U.S. air and ground forces. Only in Pakistan did we wage a fully remote-controlled war—until Thursday. That’s when Gates and Gen. James Cartwright, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, announced another American drone campaign, this time in Libya.This is the invasion’s third stage: global expansion. Pakistan has been a pilot experiment—or, rather, a remotely piloted experiment—in unmanned warfare. Drones have won the confidence of presidents of both parties. Gates’ announcement signals that they will now be deployed beyond Pakistan, to Libya and any other place where we need to kill people without risking American lives.The quiet, early days of the drone war in Pakistan are over. Unmanned aerial weapons have become an American boast. “Gates: Obama OKs Predator Strikes in Libya,” says the headline on the Department of Defense website. The arrival of our killing machines is now part of the U.S. message to Muammar Qaddafi, the people around him, and our allies.Why are we sending drones a month after we entered the Libyan war? Because the war has evolved to require them. Thanks to NATO’s air campaign, Cartwright explained, Qaddafi’s forces “that are out in the open know that they’re going to probably perish if a NATO bird sees them. So you’re seeing a much more dispersed fight, people that are digging in or nestling up against crowded areas, where collateral damage is.” To evade or deter air strikes, Qaddafi’s men are traveling in unmarked vehicles and relocating to cities where they can use nearby civilians, in effect, as human shields.To kill the bad guys without killing innocent bystanders, we need vehicles that can get close enough to our targets—and inspect them long enough—to be sure that what we’re looking at is the bad guys. And then we have to hit them with weapons precise enough to avoid collateral damage. Drones have proved they can do this. Even critics concede that in Pakistan, the drones’ civilian casualty rate has declined from 25 percent to 5 percent.In Libya, Cartwright observed, drones will give NATO the “ability to get down lower” for “better visibility” on its targets. “They’re uniquely suited for … urban areas where you can get low collateral damage,” thanks to “their extended persistence on the target.” Any pilot who tried to fly low enough, or hover long enough, to get the same level of visual confirmation might be shot down. And we can’t have that, because Obama has promised us an almost risk-free war.On Thursday, Gates reaffirmed the pledge with which Obama began the Libya campaign: no ground troops. When reporters asked whether the drones’ arrival signaled “mission creep” in Libya, Gates said no. “The president has been firm, for example, on boots on the ground,” Gates reiterated. With the drones’ help, Obama intends to keep that pledge, waging a war without footprints. He won’t even have to risk another downed American pilot.Drones alone can’t win the war in Libya, any more than they’ve won the war in Pakistan. But they increase our ability to kill the enemy while sparing civilians and avoiding risk to ourselves. To that extent, the unmanned invasion of warfare is a force for good.On the other hand, it may also create a new kind of mission creep.“If we tried to overthrow Qaddafi,” Obama warned Americans three weeks ago, “we would likely have to put U.S. troops on the ground to accomplish that mission, or risk killing many civilians from the air. The dangers faced by our men and women in uniform would be far greater.”But if drones continue to improve and to take over the conduct of war, the risks to civilians, U.S. troops, and pilots might diminish to the point where we feel emboldened to attempt the overthrow of other dictators. In that case, the unmanned invasion of warfare might turn out to be the most significant invasion of this century, but certainly not the last.(Readings I recommend: Spencer Ackerman at Danger Room points out that drones need spotters on the ground, so if we don’t use “boots” for that in Libya, we might be using the CIA. Peter Bergen and Katherine Tiedemann analyzed the first six years of the drone campaign in Pakistan in a 2010 New America Foundation paper. They updated their assessment four months ago in Foreign Policy. Bill Roggio and Alexander Mayer calculate a lower rate of civilian casualties at the Long War Journal. P. W. Singer wrote a terrific overview of drone warfare and the future of unmanned systems in Slate last year.)slate.com◆